The GTM Field Manual
Part I · The Operating System · Chapter 2
Part I · The Operating System · Chapter 2

The Estimate

A plan is a guess with a deadline. An estimate is a plan checked against the terrain.

The GTM Field Manual · Chapter 2 of 24 · ~5 min read

Most plans are made before the check

The default is to start with the idea, then look for reasons it will work. The strategy doc comes first, the reality check second. Commanders do it backwards: they run an estimate first, a structured look at the situation, and only then commit to a plan.

1
The idea comes first
You start with what you want to do, then hunt for reasons it will work. Confirmation is the whole planning process.
2
The doc comes first
The strategy document gets written before the situation gets checked. The estimate is skipped, the plan is not.
3
Contact comes anyway
The market does not care about your doc. Plans that never checked the ground do not survive contact with it.
4
The wish is the plan
If you cannot fill the five lines below, you do not have a plan. You have a wish with a deadline.

The military principle: check the ground before you commit

Commanders run an estimate before every operation. Five factors, answered honestly, then a decision. The plan follows the estimate; it never precedes it.

A
Plan first, check later
Write the strategy, commit the budget, then discover the ground doesn't match. The check happens after the money is already spent.
B
Estimate first, plan second
Answer the five factors, compare two or three ways to achieve the mission, then commit to the one that wins on the ground you actually have.
Planning follows the estimate. It doesn't precede it.

Five factors, one page

The estimate is five questions. Answer them in one page and you know whether to commit, and where.

1
Mission
What must be accomplished, and why. Not “run a campaign.” “Close 30 accounts this quarter because the board needs the revenue.”
2
Enemy
What is actually blocking you. And specifically, the blocker’s one weakness. You attack the weakness, never the strength.
3
Terrain
The ground itself: where buyers actually see you, what blocks them, where the chokepoints are. Where the battle will be fought.
4
Troops
What you actually have: time, budget, people, energy. Not what you wish you had. Aspirational troops lose real battles.
5
Time
The window. A market, a funding cycle, a job change: open for a season, then closed. The estimate names the season.
📋
The wish test
If you can’t fill the five lines, you don’t have a plan. You have a wish.

An estimate sheet looks like this

estimate.dashboard
MissionClose 30 ICP accounts · board needs ARR
EnemyIncumbent’s weakness: no signal-based outreach
TerrainLinkedIn feed · buyers watch before they buy
Troops2 people · $5K · 10 hrs/wk
TimeThis quarter · closes when the quarter does

The procedure: five lines before a single commitment

Run these before a dollar is spent. The whole estimate fits on one page.

1
State the mission
One sentence: the outcome you're accountable for, plus the intent behind it. Two levels up, not just your desk.
2
Name the enemy’s weakness
Who competes, and what is their one exploitable weakness? If you can’t name it, you haven’t looked.
3
Map the terrain
Where do buyers observe you? What blocks them? Where are the chokepoints and the avenues in?
4
Count your troops
Time, budget, people, energy. The real numbers. If a line comes up empty, that is your answer.
5
Set the time
What is the window, and when does it close? A plan without a season is a hobby.
6
Generate options, then commit
Two or three different ways to achieve the mission. Compare them against the five lines. Pick the one that wins, and go.

Where it applies

The estimate is not a planning ritual. It is a go or no-go gate.

🎯
Every campaign
One page before any spend. Five lines you can actually fill, or the campaign doesn't launch.
🤝
Client work
The estimate becomes the client-facing deliverable: the War Room one-pager that frames the engagement.
🧠
Big decisions
Run the same five lines on anything expensive. Most bad decisions are an estimate someone skipped.

No plan without an estimate. Five lines before a single commitment.

Koka Sexton
The GTM Field Manual

A written operating system for go-to-market: military doctrine translated for business. One chapter publishes at a time. The frameworks are public. The operating rules behind them are not.

Part I · The Operating System
Chapter 1 · Reconnaissance Pull READ NOW
Chapter 2 · The Estimate READ NOW
Chapter 3 · The Decisive Point READ NOW
Chapter 4 · Command & Control READ NOW
Chapter 5 · Sustain READ NOW
Part II · Tempo & Tactics
Chapters 6-8 · The OODA Loop, The Ambush, Precombat ChecksCOMING SOON
Part III · Read the Battlefield
Chapters 9-14 · Terrain, Center of Gravity, Warfare, Positioning, Counter-Recon, InflectionCOMING SOON
Part IV · Multiply & Adapt
Chapters 15-19 · Force Multipliers, Branches, Main Effort, After Action Review, RehearsalsCOMING SOON
Part V · The Operator
Chapters 20-23 · Simplicity, The Reverse, Negotiation, Defense in DepthCOMING SOON
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The Decisive Point

Do few things. Do them where you're strongest. Everything else is noise you're paying for.

Read Chapter 3

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